The fragile peace in northern Ethiopia just shattered, and the people living through it are terrified. Explosions echo overnight through the streets of Mekelle. Markets empty out. Civilians scramble to pack what they can carry.
If you've followed East African politics over the last few years, you know the 2022 Pretoria agreement was supposed to end the bloodshed. It didn't. Renewed fighting between federal troops and fighters loyal to the Tigray People's Liberation Front has destroyed that peace accord. Residents in Mekelle, the largest city in northern Ethiopia, now face a grim reality they thought they left behind.
The Return of Fear to Mekelle
Life in the Tigrayan capital changed overnight. Selam Fantay sells garlic in the central market. She watches customers pull back from buying as anxiety sets in.
"There is an atmosphere of fear," Fantay notes. "People are deeply concerned that the suspension of transport services signals the outbreak of renewed conflict."
Roads connecting Tigray to the neighboring Afar region are shut down to civilian traffic. Internet service has vanished across parts of the north. Ethiopian Airlines suspended all air travel into Mekelle after fighters loyal to the TPLF seized the city's airport from federal police.
Basics are getting scarce. Hailay Meles runs a local business in the city. He worries about the rising price of food and household commodities. When transport routes close, everyday items turn into luxuries. Nobody knows how long supply lines will stay broken.
A Peace Deal Collapses Under the Weight of Mutual Blame
How did things fall apart this fast? Both sides point fingers.
The 2022 peace agreement brought a temporary halt to a brutal two-year war. A caretaker administration took charge in Mekelle under federal supervision. But political friction never really went away. Leadership shifts inside Tigray saw the return of TPLF figures who led the region during the previous conflict.
Federal authorities accuse the TPLF of trying to forge a dangerous alliance with neighboring Eritrea to destabilize the country. Meanwhile, the TPLF claims the central government under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has launched illegal drone strikes in the region.
Ethiopia's military claims dozens of TPLF fighters have been killed in recent operations, with weapons seized and fighters detained. Yet humanitarian workers on the ground paint a desperate picture of displacement. Valerie Browning, co-founder of the Afar Pastoralist Development Association, reports that humanitarian vehicles and ambulances are being commandeered by the government for military use as people try to flee into Afar.
A Wider Regional Threat
This isn't just a regional flare-up anymore. It's part of a massive political chess game.
Days before the fighting erupted, seven opposition groups announced a major new coalition aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party government.
Magnus Taylor, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, explains that this new coalition merges political opposition with tactical military coordination. Groups operating in completely different parts of the country are now aligning their goals.
The coalition includes the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement, and the Oromo Liberation Army. According to Taylor, this opens up a real risk that the fighting could spread nationwide. Instead of isolated skirmishes, the federal government faces coordinated campaigns on multiple fronts simultaneously.
Add neighboring Eritrea into the mix—alarmed by Abiy's vocal ambitions for sovereign access to the Red Sea—and the geopolitical stakes are sky-high.
The signs point toward a protracted struggle unless international pressure forces a return to negotiations. For now, thousands of families in northern Ethiopia are left wondering if they'll have homes to return to next week.
