The final American troops have packed up and left Iraq, closing a military chapter that began more than two decades ago. Operation Inherent Resolve is officially over. Baghdad is celebrating the departure as a monumental victory for national sovereignty, complete with holiday parades and flag-waving convoys. But behind the official celebrations, regional security experts and local minority groups aren't popping champagne. They are watching a shifting power vacuum with deep anxiety.
If you look past the headlines, this withdrawal didn't happen in a vacuum. It stems from a bilateral agreement struck back in 2024 to wind down the anti-ISIS mission, executed down to the wire as broader regional conflicts simmered. American forces have completely vacated their remaining footprints, including the strategic air base in Erbil located in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region. While the U.S.-led coalition shifts its counter-Islamic State operations to a headquarters in Jordan, Iraq is now entirely on its own to manage internal security.
And that is where the real panic sets in.
Why Kurdish Leaders Are Terrified of the Exit
For years, the Kurdish Peshmerga relied on American logistical support, intelligence sharing, and most importantly, air-defense systems. Now, those systems are gone.
During the intense exchanges in the recent U.S.-Iran conflict, Iraqi Kurdistan absorbed over one thousand drone and ballistic-missile strikes. Kurdish officials warned repeatedly that losing American air-defense protection leaves their territory exposed to hostile drones and missile fire from regional actors. When foreign shields disappear overnight, local populations realize how vulnerable they truly are.
It is not just about air defense. It is about political survival. Kurdish leadership fears that without a Western buffer, Baghdad and Iran-aligned militias will squeeze the semi-autonomous region politically and economically. History shows that when external powers abruptly exit complicated regions, local minority groups pay the heaviest price.
The Resurgence Threat Everyone is Whispering About
Let’s be honest about the Islamic State. Officials in Washington and Baghdad point out that ISIS has been degraded from a territorial caliphate down to scattered sleeper cells operating in remote deserts and rugged mountain terrain. That is true. But military capability is only part of the equation.
Think back to 2011. When U.S. troops pulled out the first time during the Obama administration, the political landscape in Baghdad fractured quickly. The central government alienated Sunni communities through mass arrests and systematic political exclusion. That alienation created the exact social breeding ground that allowed ISIS to surge back into power in 2014, capturing Mosul in a matter of days.
Analysts like Yerevan Saeed have warned that the exact same political ingredients are simmering right now. If the Shia-led government in Baghdad fails to build genuine, inclusive governance, marginalized Sunni and local communities will lose faith in the state. Once local populations feel unprotected or persecuted, extremist recruiters find fertile ground. A military mission ends, but the underlying grievances remain entirely intact.
Who Is Actually Winning This Transition?
Iran and its network of regional proxies are throwing a party. For years, Iran-aligned militias in Iraq targeted U.S. bases with rockets and drones, demanding a total foreign military expulsion. Now they are claiming full credit for driving the American military out.
With American boots off the ground, Tehran's political and military influence inside Iraq faces fewer structural checks. While official Iraqi security forces are vastly more experienced and better equipped than they were a decade ago, many elite security units and political factions maintain deep ties to Iran.
Former U.S. Ambassador Douglas Silliman noted that successive Iraqi governments faced relentless domestic pressure from Iran-affiliated groups to force the Americans out. Now that the demand has been met, the central question is whether Baghdad can assert true, independent control over armed factions operating outside state command, or if Iraq will become a staging ground for external interests.
Practical Realities Ahead
If you are tracking where this goes next, keep an eye on three concrete indicators over the next six months:
- Militia Integration: Watch whether Baghdad actually forces powerful pro-Iran armed groups to disarm, or if those militias simply absorb more state funding and institutional power.
- Kurdish-Baghdad Relations: Pay attention to how financial transfers and security cooperation between the central government and the Kurdish Regional Government hold up without U.S. mediation.
- ISIS Activity Reports: Monitor intelligence assessments out of Nineveh and Anbar provinces. If small-scale asymmetric attacks spike, it will confirm that sleeper cells are testing the new security architecture.
The U.S. military has officially closed its books in Iraq, leaving a complex legacy where 4,500 American lives were lost and trillions of dollars were spent. The real test of this withdrawal is not how loudly people can celebrate sovereignty today, but whether the state can hold together tomorrow.
